How the Almost Score works
Every score is explainable, time-stamped and linked to the evidence that moved it.
Five evidence factors
The Almost Score is a 0–100 editorial evidence score. Source reliability contributes 40%, independent multiple reporting 20%, club need 15%, financial fit 15% and reported player interest 10%. The weighting prevents a plausible sporting fit from outweighing weak sourcing.
How to read the score
80–100 indicates advanced, strongly sourced movement. 60–79 means credible progress with unresolved barriers. 40–59 covers plausible but incomplete reporting. 20–39 is weak, structurally difficult or agent-driven. 0–19 is unsupported, contradicted or on Fake Watch.
Evidence that can move a score
An independent confirmation, a formal bid, personal-terms agreement, club-to-club agreement, medical or official announcement can raise a score. A denial, source retraction, financial obstacle, squad-rule problem or failed negotiation can lower it. Material changes are preserved in the route timeline.
Not a probability or betting product
The score measures the strength and direction of current public evidence. It is not a mathematical probability, guarantee, betting tip or statement made on behalf of a club, player or agent.