Methodology Change Log

Last updated: 27 September 2026

27 September 2026 — Dated score comparison

The archive analysis now compares the earliest and latest qualifying score-history entries strictly before an explicit recorded result. The archived final-score field is retained in exports but is no longer assumed to be a pre-result score. Terminal events, scores of 100 and entries with missing or later timestamps are excluded from the comparison; their outcome records remain visible. The snapshot date, denominator limits and both score timestamps are disclosed. This corrects the interpretation of score bands without rewriting historical outcomes or changing automated news publication.

27 September 2026 — Reproducible prediction record

The public Track Record now uses one preserved set of eligible predictions for its initial page, period filters and CSV export. It keeps open routes outside completion rates and shows a percentage only when the individual group contains at least 25 resolved predictions. Missing scoring attribution is labelled unknown.

27 September 2026 — Confirmed European draw fields

Europa League and Conference League simulators now use UEFA’s final 2026/27 participants and pots, replacing the earlier projected fields. Their difficulty comparisons use the published order within those pots rather than unverified numerical coefficients. The Champions League tool retains its dated coefficient inputs. Every result is an unofficial simulation, not the official fixture list or a forecast of match results.

28 July 2026 — Conservative autonomous publication gate

Autonomous publication was introduced only for men’s transfer articles that pass direct-source reachability, contextual Tier, database-backed player and club identity, route direction, duplicate detection, factual support, minimum depth and a separate independent-critic check. A daily publication cap limits scale. Failed checks keep a candidate private, and an autonomous article never claims individual human pre-publication review.

28 July 2026 — Source access resilience

Direct publisher evidence is preferred over feed summaries. Google News redirects use a bounded resolver with persistent caching and a rate-limit circuit breaker; ESPN reports are verified through ESPN’s first-party content endpoint when its public article page blocks automated access. An unreachable or mismatched source cannot justify publication.

Last updated: 14 July 2026

14 July 2026 — Quality-first automation

Unrestricted News publication and automatic Done Deal ingestion were disabled while entity matching, duplicate detection and editorial quality gates were rebuilt. The manual path remains available; the later autonomous path is subject to the stricter 28 July rules above. New transfer news requires a verified player, current club, linked club, route direction, source and Rumour or Done Deal connection.

14 July 2026 — Evidence provenance

Source evidence was separated into original reports, independent confirmations, citations or reposts, aggregators, official sources and retractions or denials. Repetition no longer counts as independent confirmation.

14 July 2026 — Score accountability

Score-history records gained previous score, delta, reason, source, event type, actor and timestamp fields. Manual editor changes require a reason. Completed, collapsed and expired predictions remain in the public Track Record.

14 July 2026 — Explainable fit

Club Need, Financial Fit and remaining deal steps were converted from opaque labels into factor-level explanations with confidence indicators. Unknown financial values remain ranges or are marked unknown.

Publication rule

Future material methodology changes will be appended here with a date and plain-language impact note. Earlier entries will not be silently rewritten to make historical performance appear stronger.