Football Italia reports that Silvio Baldini’s Italy U21 go into their final Group E match against Poland knowing only a win by two clear goals will take them top of the group. Italy are second on 24 points, three behind Poland after Cisse’s late winner in Armenia.
The report says a one-goal Italy victory would leave the mini-table level, but Poland would still stay ahead on overall goal difference. UEFA’s head-to-head rule matters first because Poland won the reverse fixture 2-1 in November 2025.
Both sides are already guaranteed a top-two finish, so Italy do not need to win to stay in the qualification picture. If they finish second, their route remains open through the standings for the best runners-up, though that depends on results across the other groups.